A global feasibility gap in resilient island energy transitions

Engineering notes

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Chinese explanation / 中文解读

中文解读待补充：本站会优先为光伏效率、钙钛矿太阳能电池、储能技术、太阳能热利用、BIPV、并网技术等高价值论文补充中文说明。

Original abstract

Island nations are central to achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7 on affordable and clean energy, yet the feasibility of their energy transitions remains poorly quantified. Here we show, using a high-resolution assessment of over 1800 inhabited islands and 50 million hourly records of demand and renewable resources, that resilient low-carbon power systems remain out of reach for many islands. More than half of the islands assessed face transition costs above income-based affordability thresholds, with the greatest burdens in Southeast Asia, coastal Africa and the Western Pacific. Adding climate-resilience requirements moves 7% of islands into higher-cost categories. Although technological progress could lower average levelized cost of electricity by about 4% by 2050, this reduction is too small to close the feasibility gap for low-income islands. These findings show that market-driven cost declines alone are unlikely to deliver equitable island energy transitions, and that targeted support is needed. A global assessment of 1,830 inhabited islands shows that affordability limits, climate-resilience costs and uneven technology learning leave many island energy transitions economically infeasible without targeted support.

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