An Analytical Newsvendor Framework for Risk-Averse Energy Storage Capacity Reservation under Non-Normal Uncertainty

Engineering notes

Engineering notes will be added by the Power for Solar editorial team.

Chinese explanation / 中文解读

中文解读待补充：本站会优先为光伏效率、钙钛矿太阳能电池、储能技术、太阳能热利用、BIPV、并网技术等高价值论文补充中文说明。

Original abstract

Energy storage operators often reserve usable capacity before uncertain market opportunities are realized, for example when a day-ahead operator commits capacity for an evening peak-spread or ancillary-service window. Price spikes, renewable forecast errors, activation calls and imbalance penalties can make the decision-relevant opportunity distribution asymmetric and heavy-tailed rather than Gaussian. This paper develops a tri-objective storage-newsvendor framework for this capacity-reservation decision. The model jointly maximizes expected profit, minimizes CVaR tail loss and minimizes maximum regret over candidate non-normal distributions. We derive a critical-fractile expected-profit solution and a finite-scenario convex scalarization that solves the three objectives together. In stylized log-NMVM experiments with matched mean and variance, a moment-matched normal policy over-reserves capacity by up to 1.337 units. In a lognormal policy comparison, the CVaR and maximum-regret policies reduce tail loss and candidate-set regret at the cost of lower expected profit.

Links and sources

• Official / arXiv page
• PDF from original source

Comments