<b>Critical Mineral Demand and Secondary Supply Potential for China's Solar Photovoltaic and Wind Power: A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis</b>

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Chinese explanation / 中文解读

中文解读待补充：本站会优先为光伏效率、钙钛矿太阳能电池、储能技术、太阳能热利用、BIPV、并网技术等高价值论文补充中文说明。

Original abstract

<b>Abstract: </b>China’s rapid deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power creates growing critical mineral demand and substantial future material outflows. This study develops a dynamic material flow analysis framework covering five PV and four wind power subtechnologies under four scenario dimensions. The framework quantifies material inflows, material outflows, secondary supply potential, production and reserve pressures, and potential economic and environmental benefits from 2025 to 2050.Cumulative material inflows and outflows are projected to reach 324.4–696.6 Mt and 175.4–267.5 Mt, respectively, while cumulative secondary supply potential reaches 151.0–229.9 Mt. Renewable energy deployment scale dominates inflow variations for most materials. Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, and Mg are particularly sensitive to the expansion of thin-film PV technologies. Under the thin-film rise scenario, the combined cumulative inflows of these materials are, on average, more than 20 times those under the crystalline silicon dominated scenario. Nb exhibits extreme production pressure alongside China’s high import dependence, while Ag faces substantial production and reserve pressures across all scenarios. Te and Cu face additional pathway-dependent risks under rising CdTe shares and accelerated energy transition, respectively.Secondary supply reduces the average cumulative reserve pressure of the assessed minerals from 19.2% to 14.0%, although its effect on peak production pressure remains limited. Under the baseline scenario of this study, annual secondary supply potential exceeds annual material inflows for 13 materials by 2050. During 2025–2050, secondary supply represents a potential economic value of USD 240.0–338.0 billion and corresponds to potential electricity savings of 482.7–695.5 TWh and CO₂ emission reductions of 494.8–744.3 Mt from avoided primary production. Recycling timing is critical. Delaying the establishment of a mature recycling system from 2025 to 2045 reduces cumulative secondary supply potential by 53.7% and increases cumulative net material inflows by 34.4%, with losses accelerating after 2035. Extending equipment lifetimes significantly reduces cumulative material outflows and future material demand, thereby temporarily easing pressure on primary mineral supply. These findings highlight the importance of tracking technology pathway changes, strengthening supply management for high risk critical minerals, accelerating recycling system development, and promoting longer equipment design lifetimes.

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