Beyond a single path: A meta-theoretical review of how spatial, political, and institutional dynamics shape China's net-zero transition

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Chinese explanation / 中文解读

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Original abstract

How can we comprehend China's net-zero transition approach when distinct theoretical frameworks offer differing explanations? Drawn from extensive original field research and 52 semi-structured interviews with experts on China, we apply a meta-theoretical approach that first describes three complementary frameworks (Geographies of Energy Transition, Variegated Capitalism, and Fragmented Authoritarianism) to interpret China's net-zero transition under the dual “30–60” targets of peaking emissions by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. The Geographies of Energy Transition approach reveals the spatial differentiation, path dependence, and regional unevenness embedded in China's net-zero transition. Variegated Capitalism highlights a state-led logic of “managed competition”, in which state-owned enterprises, party authority, and relational ( guanxi ) networks enable multi-level policy coordination and technological mobilization. Meanwhile, Fragmented Authoritarianism underscores the coexistence of centralization and decentralization within China's administrative state, illustrating the misalignments, negotiations, and experimental practices that characterize policy implementation. After describing each of these theories, we discuss and demonstrate how framework pluralism reveals insights unavailable to single-perspective analysis; empirically, we provide evidence across multiple domains and sectors; methodologically, we show that net-zero transitions are multi-dimensional phenomena that defy any singular framework attempting to explain China's transitions. Although we do not offer a synthesis of these theories, bringing together different perspectives demonstrates that net-zero transitions are neither teleological, in the sense of operating according to a fixed internal logic and timetable, nor unitary processes. Instead, they are marked by political ruptures, multi-scalar interactions and contestations, unanticipated technological dynamics, and very distinct ideological underpinnings.

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