Climate change impacts on European electricity demand and supply until 2100

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Original abstract

Renewable and electrified energy systems are highly weather-dependent, making them vulnerable to climate change. Energy system modeling therefore requires high-quality data that captures the spatiotemporal complexity of climate conditions. We present SECURES-Energy, an open-access dataset providing hourly electricity demand and supply data for Europe at the national level from 1981 to 2100. Historical data are derived from ERA5 reanalysis, while future projections use two EURO-CORDEX scenarios (RCP 4.5/RCP 8.5). The dataset includes onshore and offshore wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and hydropower generation, as well as all electricity demand components such as heating, cooling, and mobility. Results indicate no consistent trends for solar PV and hydropower across Europe. Offshore wind declines by up to −4%/−3% by 2035–2064 and −6%/−9% by 2071–2100 relative to 1981–2010. Cooling demand rises sharply (up to +80%/+149% by mid-century; +129%/+317% by end-century), while heating demand falls (−19%/−24% by mid-century; −25%/−40% by end-century). These findings highlight substantial climate-driven shifts in future electricity demand and supply.

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