Comparative Techno-Economic Assessment ofHybrid-Green Ammonia Layouts for Available-to-Date Decarbonization of the Fertilizer Industry

Engineering notes

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Chinese explanation / 中文解读

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Original abstract

Industrial ammonia synthesis remains a high-impact decarbonization target due to the combined effect of large production volumes and reliance on CO2-intensive fossil-based hydrogen. Replacing it partially with renewable-based (green) electrolytic hydrogen can minimize direct emissions; however, the intermittency of solar and wind complicates retrofit strategies for existing continuous plants. This paper addresses a techno-economic study centered on a retrofit-oriented hybrid concept: a conventional natural-gas ammonia plant is operated within a pre-defined “hybridization envelope”, where part of the process hydrogen is supplied by a renewable Power-to-Hydrogen subsystem. A steady-state process model (gray/blue baselines) is coupled with an hourly energy dispatch and a sizing optimization of solar/wind park, electrolyzer, battery, and hydrogen storage. A case study based on 2024 California data for renewables and carbon pricing illustrates how hybridization can reduce carbon intensity while ensuring all process constraints are met, and how the optimal renewable mix trades off between overbuild and storage. Results highlight the role of solar-wind complementarity in lowering the levelized cost of hydrogen and, consequently, the levelized cost of ammonia, while leaving a clear pathway for combining hybrid-green operation with carbon capture (hybrid-blue-green) as a transitional strategy.

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