Evaluating the effectiveness of green recovery measures on sectoral energy transition pathways and employment opportunities towards net zero: Evidence from the Greek National Recovery and Resilience Plan

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Original abstract

The extent to which post-COVID green recovery measures can accelerate national progress towards net zero remains insufficiently understood, as most existing studies focus on global or regional scales, provide limited sectoral granularity, or report employment effects only in aggregate terms. This study addresses these gaps by assessing the additionality and sufficiency of Greece's National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) investments and reforms in shaping energy transition pathways and employment opportunities in the power and residential sectors through 2030 and 2050. Using two open-source, bottom-up modelling frameworks, OSeMOSYS and DREEM, the analysis compares NRRP-supported interventions against baseline trajectories aligned with national policy objectives. Direct employment effects are quantified using a technology-specific employment-factor approach linked to future capacity additions and renovation rates. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first modelling assessment of the green recovery measures embedded in Greece's NRRP. The results show that the NRRP can generate meaningful short-term impacts, including modest reductions in fossil-fuel use and emissions, accelerated deployment of variable renewables, storage, and heat pumps, and increased job creation, with operation and maintenance offering the strongest long-term employment prospects. However, its long-term contribution across the sectors examined remains limited, with only minor effects on deep decarbonisation, large-scale renewable expansion, and ambitious renovation pathways. The findings suggest that, while NRRP investments and reforms can stimulate short-term progress, achieving Greece's net-zero objectives will require substantial complementary private investment, stronger implementation capacity, and stable long-term policies capable of turning near-term gains into lasting structural change.

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