Evaluation of technology specific adoption dynamics of solar, small hydropower and biomass in Nigeria's energy transition plan

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Original abstract

Nigeria continues to face an acute electricity crisis, marked by chronic supply deficits, unreliable service, and widespread dependence on costly fossil-fuel generators. In response, the government's Energy Transition Plan (ETP) sets ambitious targets of achieving universal electricity access by 2030 and reaching net-zero emissions by 2060. While these policy commitments are significant, their delivery often assumes uniform adoption across technologies and pays limited attention to behavioural realities. This research addresses that gap by examining how stakeholders perceive, accept, and are willing to adopt renewable electricity technologies, and by identifying the differentiated behavioural drivers that shape adoption in Nigeria's power sector. The study adopts an extended Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to investigate perceptions of solar photovoltaic, small hydropower, and biomass-to-energy systems. In addition to the core constructs of perceived usefulness (PU) and perceived ease of use (PEOU), the model incorporates affordability, social benefit (SB), and environmental awareness (EA) to reflect Nigeria's specific adoption context. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining a nationwide survey of 215 respondents with stakeholder interviews and secondary policy analysis. Data were analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM), enabling rigorous testing of both the measurement and structural models. Findings reveal that adoption drivers are highly technology specific. For solar energy, the extended TAM explained adoption strongly, accounting for approximately 61% of perceived usefulness, 62% of user attitudes, and 41% of behavioural intention. Affordability and social benefit showed statistically significant positive relationships with perceived usefulness, which in turn had a strong and significant influence on both attitudes and behavioural intention. This suggests that financing models and visible community-level projects are central to accelerating solar uptake. Biomass showed a contrasting pattern. Adoption intent was low, with the model explaining only 29% of perceived usefulness and 5% of behavioural intention. Affordability and perceived ease of use exhibited statistically significant negative relationships with perceived usefulness and user attitudes. These sign-inverting effects highlight a credibility gap: users often associate biomass with low quality, limiting trust and acceptance. Hydropower displayed relatively high perceived usefulness, but the model explained only 18% of perceived usefulness and less than 10% of behavioural intention. While perceived usefulness maintained a statistically significant positive relationship with both attitudes and behavioural intention, systemic barriers such as infrastructure requirements, financing challenges, and policy bottlenecks prevented this from translating into stronger adoption intentions. Theoretically, this research demonstrates that TAM is not technology-neutral but sensitive to technology maturity and context, and it reveals rare negative effects of affordability and ease cues, particularly in the case of biomass. Practically, the study proposes differentiated deployment models: a Solar Communities Initiative (SCI) to embed ownership and affordability, biomass urban waste-to-energy clusters supported by certification and demonstration schemes, and hydro clusters that de-risk investment in small-scale projects. These strategies are integrated through an Intelligent Energy Transition Platform, designed to improve transparency, coordination, and stakeholder engagement. Collectively, the research contributes a behaviourally grounded and technology-specific roadmap for refining Nigeria's ETP, ensuring that the transition to net-zero is not only technically and economically viable but also socially credible and widely adopted.

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