Here comes the sun: investigating the solar rebound effect and consumption behavior in photovoltaic households

Engineering notes

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Chinese explanation / 中文解读

中文解读待补充：本站会优先为光伏效率、钙钛矿太阳能电池、储能技术、太阳能热利用、BIPV、并网技术等高价值论文补充中文说明。

Original abstract

Abstract The widespread adoption of residential solar photovoltaic systems is key to decarbonizing the energy system. However, access to zero-marginal-cost electricity may induce increased consumption, known as the solar rebound effect (SRE). Combining longitudinal household panel data with survey evidence and machine-learning-based reconstruction of total electricity consumption, we confirm the presence of the SRE. The average generation-based effect of about 20.1% is robust over system dimensioning and negatively correlated with pre-installation electricity use. Moreover, efficient households exhibit significantly higher rebound effects. From a system perspective, an SRE of this magnitude could add more than 2000 TWh of global household electricity demand by 2050, with implications for grid infrastructure, generation capacity, and life-cycle emissions. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating rebound effects into energy system and life-cycle models and suggest that policies promoting PV deployment should be complemented by measures that preserve marginal price signals and address post-adoption consumption behavior.

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