Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles in Road Transport: Multi-Objective Optimization of Total Cost of Ownership and Well-to-Wheel Emissions

Engineering notes

Engineering notes will be added by the Power for Solar editorial team.

Chinese explanation / 中文解读

中文解读待补充：本站会优先为光伏效率、钙钛矿太阳能电池、储能技术、太阳能热利用、BIPV、并网技术等高价值论文补充中文说明。

Original abstract

Traditional techno-economic assessments of zero-emission mobility frequently rely on static Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) models that fail to capture the concurrent evolution of economic and environmental parameters. To address this research gap, this study develops a novel dynamic multi-objective optimization framework that jointly assesses TCO and Well-to-Wheel (WTW) emissions across the period 2026–2060, capturing the non-linear trade-offs between cost minimization and lifecycle decarbonization. The model developed compares light-duty hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) with diesel, petrol, and battery-electric vehicles (EVs), incorporating time-varying Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) learning curves, fuel price trajectories, carbon pricing effects, and emissions-decay pathways. Hydrogen break-even prices are computed annually against each competing technology to identify the market conditions under which FCEVs become cost competitive. The results show that light-duty hydrogen FCEVs face a substantial entry barrier in 2026, with a TCO of approximately €275,000, far above diesel, petrol and EV alternatives. However, their relative competitiveness improves over time as hydrogen production costs decline and fossil-fuel vehicle costs increase due to the EU ETS2 and Eurovignette CO2 surcharges. The analysis identifies two key inflection points, that is, light-duty hydrogen FCEVs become more cost effective than petrol vehicles in 2037 and reach parity with EVs in 2046. In emissions terms, light-duty FCEVs occupy a strong position on the low-WTW frontier, while EVs combine the lowest TCO with similarly favorable emissions performance. To bridge the intermediate cost-parity gap and mitigate infrastructure lock-in risks, targeted policy measures, such as carbon-weighted road toll exemptions, upstream fuel-tax subsidies under the EU ETS2 framework, and capital grants for localized commercial fleet refueling units, are essential to accelerate early-stage market industrialization and secure the economic viability of hydrogen mobility.

Links and sources

• PDF from original source

Comments