Impact of Solar Photovoltaic Penetration on Net-Load Dynamics and Flexibility in Albania

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Original abstract

The rapid growth of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is increasingly reshaping the operation of electricity systems, particularly in countries where renewable energy already represents a large share of generation. In Albania, where electricity production is strongly dominated by hydropower, increasing solar penetration is expected to affect short-term system behaviour, especially in terms of variability, surplus generation, and ramping dynamics. This study investigates PV integration at the system level using hourly electricity demand data for 2024 together with PV generation profiles scaled to different capacity scenarios. PV scenarios representing installed capacities of 150, 300, and 450 MWp, based on real PV deployment data, are analysed under varying levels of hydropower dominance. The analysis combines net-load modeling, ramping assessment, and a simplified flexibility-oriented mitigation approach to evaluate operational impacts under different hydropower conditions. The results indicate that increasing PV capacity significantly modifies the net-load profile. During summer periods, high solar generation substantially reduces midday net load, creating pronounced net-load valleys, whereas winter conditions remain more strongly influenced by electricity demand. As PV penetration increases, ramping intensity also increases. For example, extreme ramp values (Q99) rise from 80.87 MW/h at 300 MWp to 111.45 MW/h at 450 MWp, while the share of hours with ramp events exceeding 100 MW/h increases from 0.05% to 2.55%. The results of a conceptual flexibility approach that limits ramps to 60 MW/h show that extreme ramp events can be effectively mitigated, while moderate variability is largely unaffected. In summary, the results show that increasing solar PV penetration shifts the main operational challenge in Albania from energy balancing toward flexibility and variability management. The findings are particularly relevant for long-term system planning in hydropower-dominated systems and highlight the growing importance of flexibility measures and surplus management under high PV penetration.

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