Solar energy paper index
Influence of local and global solar magnetic fields on medium-term forecasting of the number and parameters of coronal mass ejections
One-line summary
A solar energy research paper on Influence of local and global solar magnetic fields on medium-term forecasting of the number and parameters of coronal mass ejections.
Engineering notes
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Chinese explanation / 中文解读
中文解读待补充：本站会优先为光伏效率、钙钛矿太阳能电池、储能技术、太阳能热利用、BIPV、并网技术等高价值论文补充中文说明。
Original abstract
A study of cyclic variations in the number and parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in cycles 23-25 demonstrates differences in the behavior of strong and weak CMEs. Strong CMEs, unlike weak CMEs, follow the cyclic evolution of active regions. A method for separately predicting strong and weak CMEs is proposed. Based on global magnetic field (GMF) parameters, the timing of the minima of cycles 26 and 27 (CR~2375$\pm5$ and CR~2526$\pm5$), the duration of cycle 26 (151~CRs or 11.2838 years), and the periods of dominance of the GMF sectorial structure in cycles 25 and 26 ($\approx$CRs 2245-2355 and $\approx$CRs~2395-2546) were determined. Assuming similarities between cycles 26 and 20, a Wolf number forecast was made for cycle 26, based on which the number of strong CMEs in cycles 25 and 26 was predicted. Based on the ratio of weak to strong CMEs in cycle 23, a forecast of weak CMEs in cycles 25 and 26 was made. A comparison of the predicted and observed CME parameters in cycle 25 shows good agreement.
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