Integrated methane emission modelling and waste-to-energy scenario analysis for a circular low-carbon waste sector in Bahrain: a comparison of IPCC and LandGEM approaches and policy implications

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Original abstract

Rapid growth in municipal solid waste (MSW) generation, limited land availability, and exclusive dependence on the Askar landfill have placed Bahrain’s waste sector under increasing environmental and climate pressure. This study develops an integrated assessment of MSW quantities, landfill methane emissions, and waste-to-energy (WtE) potential using official national datasets, the IPCC 1996 and 2006 First-Order Decay (FOD) methodologies, and US EPA LandGEM modelling with calibrated arid-climate parameters (k = 0.0123 yr⁻¹; L₀ = 90.6 m³ CH₄ Mg⁻¹). Results reveal large methodological divergence: for 2016, estimated emissions range from 3,737 Gg CO₂-eq (IPCC 1996) to 660 Gg CO₂-eq (IPCC, Citation2006) and ≈280–313 Gg CO₂-eq (LandGEM), demonstrating strong sensitivity to parameterization. LandGEM projections indicate peak emissions of approximately 14,844 Mg CH4 yr−1 in 2020, equivalent to ≈ 371 Gg CO₂-eq. Capturing 75% of landfill gas would reduce emissions by ≈ 75% and generate ≈ 52–57 GWh yr⁻¹, yielding approximately 162 million USD in combined electricity and carbon revenues through 2035. Anaerobic digestion of segregated organics and sewage sludge could further produce ≈ 400–450 GWh yr−1, offering the largest system-level mitigation benefit. Findings indicate that Bahrain’s total waste sector contributed approximately 10%–12% of national GHG emissions in earlier inventories, whereas corrected estimates for solid waste disposal alone indicate a lower landfill-specific contribution of approximately 6.2%. This distinction highlights the importance of clear sectoral bookkeeping when interpreting MSW-related methane emissions.

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