Integrating Renewable Energy Supply Curves into Long-Term Energy System Modelling: A Case Study of Solar PV and Onshore and Offshore Wind in Poland

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Original abstract

Long-term energy system models often represent renewable energy technologies using aggregated potentials and average capacity factors, which may insufficiently reflect the spatial and technological heterogeneity of weather-dependent resources. This study develops and implements resource- and performance-based renewable energy supply curves for solar photovoltaics, onshore wind and offshore wind in the TIMES-PL energy system model for Poland. These supply curves are coupled with time-dependent techno-economic assumptions in TIMES-PL, allowing the modelled attractiveness of individual renewable resource classes to change across model years. The proposed approach combines spatial resource assessment, GIS-based data processing and differentiated hourly capacity factor profiles. The supply curves were constructed using data from the JRC ENSPRESO database, the PVGIS interface and the Copernicus Climate Data Store, with QGIS applied to classify renewable resource potential according to regional conditions, wind farm location and photovoltaic panel orientation. Two model scenarios were compared: a base scenario without supply curves and a scenario with implemented supply curves. The results show that incorporating spatial and technological constraints changes the modelled optimal capacity mix, although the overall system-level differences remain moderate. Accordingly, the results should be interpreted primarily in terms of installed capacity expansion rather than as a full comparison of system costs, electricity generation, unit dispatch or balancing effects. The total installed capacity in the supply-curve scenario is 1.91–3.44 GW higher than in the base scenario, corresponding to less than 3% of total system capacity. This increase results from the model being required to use renewable resource classes with lower capacity factors once the most favourable potentials are fully utilised. This study demonstrates that renewable energy supply curves can improve the representation of spatially differentiated renewable deployment options in long-term national energy system modelling.

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