Long-Term Climate Variability and Photovoltaic Energy Potential for Sustainable Hospital Infrastructure in Türkiye: A Multi-Method Assessment

Engineering notes

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Chinese explanation / 中文解读

中文解读待补充：本站会优先为光伏效率、钙钛矿太阳能电池、储能技术、太阳能热利用、BIPV、并网技术等高价值论文补充中文说明。

Original abstract

The main objective of the current study is to assess the techno-economic feasibility, climate change adaptability, and sustainability of photovoltaic energy systems in six large hospitals in Turkey (Adana, Başakşehir, Bursa, Elazig, Gaziantep, and Yozgat) to achieve United Nations recommendations as Sustainable Development Goal 7 (affordable and clean energy) and Sustainable Development Goal 13 (climate action). This study aims to determine the impact of long-term climate change on the availability of photovoltaic (PV) energy resources. To achieve this goal, this research was conducted through a multi-step approach combining (1) the detection of long-term climate trends using linear regression on the TerraClimate database, (2) the spatial analysis of photovoltaic solar energy potential using high-resolution satellite imagery (Google Maps) for roof suitability and parking areas, (3) the estimation of photovoltaic electricity generation and the calculation of the capacity factor, (4) the application of the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) based on NASA Giovanni data to model the nonlinear reciprocal relationships between precipitation (R), aerosol optical thickness (AOT), photovoltaic solar energy production, and (5) the techno-economic analysis using the Levelized energy cost (LCOE), payback period, and CO2 emission reductions. The results show statistically consistent warming trends across all sites with trends for Tmax ranging from +0.0205 to +0.0268 °C/year and for Tmin from +0.0208 to +0.0300 °C/year. The temperature of PV cells increases at a rate of +0.0197 °C/year and the wind speed decreases by −0.0031 to −0.0149 m/s/year, which indicates a reduction in convective cooling. Solar radiation, on the other hand, is relatively constant with small trends ranging from +0.0002 to +0.0566 W/m2/year, and confirms the consistent solar resource availability. Seasonal PV resource potential varies from ~70–95 W/m2 in winter to 290–310 W/m2 in summer. Furthermore, the installed PV capacities are between 6 MW (Yozgat) and 47 MW (Başakşehir) with capacity factors of 17.0–19.7% and payback periods of 4.31–4.88 years. RSM models have high explanatory power (R2 = 0.57–0.74) with AOT as the most important negative driver of PV performance. Consequently, the results show that while the solar resource of Türkiye is stable and highly exploitable, PV efficiency is increasingly determined by climate-induced thermal stress and reduced wind cooling. The study highlights the economic viability, environmental advantages, and strategic relevance of PV systems at hospitals for resilient, low-carbon healthcare infrastructure in future climate scenarios.

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