Solar energy paper index
Long-term energy security strategy in an era of new and compounding risk
One-line summary
A solar energy research paper on Long-term energy security strategy in an era of new and compounding risk.
Engineering notes
Engineering notes will be added by the Power for Solar editorial team.
Chinese explanation / 中文解读
中文解读待补充：本站会优先为光伏效率、钙钛矿太阳能电池、储能技术、太阳能热利用、BIPV、并网技术等高价值论文补充中文说明。
Original abstract
Abstract The continuing regional conflict in the Middle East is a reminder that energy security remains a central policy concern in times of geopolitical unrest and economic volatility. The energy shock stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to policy reactions that address immediate oil and gas vulnerabilities, including a historic release of strategic petroleum reserves by states in the International Energy Agency. In this cloud of geopolitical turmoil, there is a risk that policymakers continue a path of putting out fires as they come rather than developing long-term and resilient energy security strategies. And by putting out the immediate fire, they may overlook energy security risks in other domains. In this Perspective, we outline the role of scenario analysis and modeling in a new era of compounding energy security risks. We trace the historical development of energy security considerations and analysis, from early concerns over fossil fuel supplies to today’s energy system shaped by renewables, electrification, new fuel carriers, and digitalization. We then describe three classes of energy security risks building on existing conceptual frameworks: commodity flow risks (e.g., maritime chokepoint disruptions), material and technology stock risks (e.g., critical mineral export restrictions), and operational flow risks in digitally mediated systems (e.g., electricity reliability for data centers). Importantly for policymakers, we describe how these risks compound rather than substitute in a fragmented energy transition. For researchers, we outline the continued role of scenario analysis and modeling in this era of compounding risks and the steps that the community can take to advance modeling capabilities to better capture compounding risk. We conclude that advancing both policy and research requires a global community of practice that shifts energy security from a series of reactive measures to long-term strategies.
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