Multiscale and multidimensional analysis of wind and solar energy potentials

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Chinese explanation / 中文解读

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Original abstract

Deploying renewable energy is a cornerstone of climate change mitigation and the transition to sustainable energy systems. Wind and solar power are projected to become the dominant electricity sources in future energy mixes. Accurate assessment of their potential is therefore indispensable, yet such assessment must simultaneously consider meteorological, geographical, technical, economic, and implementation-related aspects. Because wind and solar power are weather- and climate-dependent variable renewable energies (VREs), meteorological potential is a key determinant and essential for effectively decarbonizing energy systems. This thesis examines four utilization pathways of VRE: (1) onshore wind, (2) offshore wind, (3) utility-scale photovoltaics (PV), and (4) rooftop PV. The thesis asks and discusses: (i) how reliably the potential levels of each pathway can be estimated, (ii) which pathways are particularly promising because of large potentials and low uncertainties, and (iii) what steps need to be taken to better assess, exploit, and realize those potentials. The reliability and availability of ground-based solar irradiance observations are evaluated, and the spatiotemporal variability of the solar and offshore wind resource is quantified. Moreover, geographical, technical, environmental, and socio-economic drivers for VRE expansion are analyzed. A suite of datasets, modeling approaches, and evaluation criteria is tested across spatial (local to global) and temporal (intra-daily to inter-annual) scales. The four studies included in this thesis highlight that, from a meteorological perspective, the overall potential of VRE is vast, particularly for offshore wind resources, but is subject to substantial spatial and temporal variations. This underscores, first, that site selection is crucial, and second, that multiple VRE sources located at different sites must complement each other to ensure a constant supply. Because of coarse, gridded data products and the absence of dense measurement networks, it is especially complex to estimate small-scale spatial resource variability (e.g., in urban areas). With regard to geographical restrictions, the finer the spatial scale analyzed, the more difficult it becomes to estimate potential. Fundamentally, analyses of meteorological and geographical potentials require compromises between large spatial and temporal extents and high spatial and temporal resolutions. Technical advances in wind and solar energy are of great importance for the efficient use of VRE and are capable of compensating for potential climate change-driven declines in resource availability. Social acceptance is a powerful barrier for implementing VRE projects. For the four VRE utilization pathways, concrete barriers to precise potential assessments emerge: 1. Onshore wind: no standardized before-after control-impact (BACI) framework for quantifying multiple environmental impacts across regions, limiting social acceptance; 2. Offshore wind: uncertainties in designated sea areas, capacity targets, turbine technologies, and climate change-induced changes in wind resource variability; 3. Utility-scale PV: sparse, inconsistent ground-based irradiance data, impeding reliable resource mapping; 4. Rooftop PV: lack of high-resolution building and roof inventory data, and intra-urban solar irradiance models applicable to national scales. Considering the substantial, still largely untapped potential, offshore wind energy and rooftop solar PV systems present especially promising opportunities for expanding VRE that could be socially accepted because they involve lower land use competition. However, their accurate potential assessment still faces major challenges and uncertainties that must be overcome. By pinpointing these data and methodological gaps and proposing ways to address them, this thesis outlines the specific research, data collection, and methodological developments required to build a robust knowledge base for the sustainable expansion of renewables worldwide. Consequently, the findings provide a solid foundation for future research that can close the identified gaps, while simultaneously furnishing policymakers and stakeholders with a pragmatic framework to prioritize those VRE pathways and regions that are both promising and amenable to reliable, data-driven potential assessments. Through a combination of good scientific practice and social willingness, evidence-based, rational decisions can be made that promote a sustainable transformation of the energy system.

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