Solar energy paper index
Operational forecasting of solar energetic particle event and proton flux using multi-source solar observations and multi-task deep learning
One-line summary
A solar energy research paper on Operational forecasting of solar energetic particle event and proton flux using multi-source solar observations and multi-task deep learning.
Engineering notes
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Chinese explanation / 中文解读
中文解读待补充：本站会优先为光伏效率、钙钛矿太阳能电池、储能技术、太阳能热利用、BIPV、并网技术等高价值论文补充中文说明。
Original abstract
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, defined by proton flux exceeding 10 pfu in the $>$ 10 MeV channel, pose major risks to spacecraft operations, astronaut safety, and high-latitude aviation. Due to the complexity and rarity of SEP events, reliable operational SEP forecasting remains an important challenge in space weather. Here we present a novel 24-hour-ahead operational forecasting framework based on a multi-task learning structure with a thoroughly constructed list of features from multiple sources that span over multiple solar cycles. It extends an earlier-introduced \texttt{SEPNET}-based models by integrating a broader range of solar observations, including active region magnetic parameters from SHARP and SMARP, solar flares information, coronal mass ejections, soft X-ray flux, and historical $>$ 10 MeV proton flux. The inclusion of SMARP data expands the temporal coverage of magnetic-field predictors to earlier solar cycles, while flux-based inputs provide additional precursor information. Building on the multi-task architecture, we develop \texttt{SEPNET-Ov2}, which jointly predicts SEP event occurrence together with future proton flux and soft X-ray flux. Evaluation on the CLEAR SEP benchmark dataset shows improved classification performance over the earlier \texttt{SEPNET-O} (operational version of \texttt{SEPNET}) on the newly aligned dataset. The best operational model is obtained when magnetic, radiative, and proton-flux predictors are combined, highlighting the value of expanded historical coverage and complementary precursor information for improving operational SEP forecasting.
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