Performance of radio-based detection to operational monitoring M5+ class solar flares

Engineering notes

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Chinese explanation / 中文解读

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Original abstract

Early detection of major solar flares is critical for defense operations due to their potential to disturb radar and radio systems. Typically, soft X-ray flux is used to monitor and classify solar flares, but since this flux has to be measured in space, it means that its availability itself is dependent on space weather conditions. For this reason, in this paper, we investigated the feasibility of using ground radio observations to monitor major (M5+ class) solar flares. We made use of datasets from the GOES-16 satellite and the Radio Solar Telescope Network in the time range between March 2023 and March 2025. An elastic net regularized logistic regression model was trained on this data, optimized through a grid search and with incorporated class weighting for class imbalance. It was found that especially higher frequencies (8800 MHz) had a reasonable ability in monitoring and predicting major flares (precision and recall for flare events are 53% and 65%, respectively - implying that roughly one third of flares were not detected - with signals appearing, on average, 3 to 4 minutes before the M5 threshold is exceeded). Radio measurements at super high frequencies can thus serve as an alternative method to monitor major solar flaring activity.

Links and sources

• Official / arXiv page
• PDF from original source

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