Policy Effects and Optimized Pathways for the Development of Wind and Solar Energy in Guangxi's Low-Carbon Energy Transition

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Chinese explanation / 中文解读

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Original abstract

In the context of the global pursuit of carbon neutrality, the energy transition of Guangxi's power sector is crucial to regional sustainable development and to China's "dual-carbon" strategy. Relying on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, this paper simulates the evolution of Guangxi's energy mix and emission-reduction potential from 2022 through 2060, constructing a Baseline Scenario (BAS), a Policy Support Scenario (PSS), and a Deep Emission Reduction Scenario (DES), focusing on rapid development pathways for wind and solar energy. The scenario simulation results show that although Guangxi's energy structure continues to improve under the BAS scenario, coal-fired power generation still reaches 92.3 TWh by 2060, constituting about 23% of total electricity generation of 397.3 TWh. Wind and solar energy generation grow to 128.3 TWh and 115.9 TWh, respectively, jointly accounting for about 62% of total generation. Under the PSS scenario, renewable energies expand rapidly, with wind and solar energy reaching 255.9 TWh and 194.3 TWh, respectively, by 2060, jointly constituting about 76% of total electricity generation of 591.6 TWh. Compared to the BAS, emissions of major pollutants (CO₂, CO, NOₓ, SO₂, and PM2.5) are reduced by about 21%, highlighting the importance of policy incentives in clean energy expansion. Under the DES scenario, Guangxi exhibits a high-penetration renewable energy development pattern. By 2060, solar energy further increases to 415.5 TWh, while wind energy reaches 219.7 TWh; together, they account for about 82% of total electricity generation of 773.2 TWh. Over the same period, coal-fired power generation sharply declined to 63.9 TWh, accounting for only 8.3% of the total. Compared to the BAS, Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and air pollutant emissions under the DES decrease by nearly 80%, fully demonstrating the central supporting role of renewable energy in realizing carbon-neutrality targets. On this basis, the study proposes key strategies for renewable energy development in Guangxi, including building a multi-energy complementary system integrating wind, solar, hydropower, and energy storage; accelerating the deployment of energy storage facilities and flexible regulating power sources; implementing smart grid upgrades to enhance renewable energy integration; and improving market-oriented trading mechanics of renewable electricity while strengthening the local manufacturing layout of wind and photovoltaic equipment.

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