The Recurrent Nova TCrB: A Method for Predicting the Next Eruptive Event in Nova Cycles

Engineering notes

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Original abstract

The symbiotic recurrent nova (SyRNe) TCrB (T-Coronae Borealis) is perhaps the most famous example of the group of known four symbiotic nova systems, for which at least two previous nova eruptions are known and accurately recorded: in 1866 and 1946. B.E. Schaefer (2023) has identified the dates of two other previous eruptive events: in 1787 and 1217. Its peak magnitude V was found to be 2.50+-0.10, making it the brightest of its class. In its quiescent phase, TCrB is the brightest of all known novae, with a mean magnitude of 9.8. Careful studies, especially photometric ones, have led to different predictions for the next nova eruption, taking into account the recurrence times extrapolated from previous eruptions, which an average value about 80 years. Schaefer, in particular, has produced various forecasts, including one made in 2023 based on B and V light curves for the period: 1842-2022, which predicts the next nova eruption should occur in 2025.5+-1.3 and is therefore still valid today. Using the Schaefer's remarkable work in accurately determining the key physical parameters that drive the dynamics of the TCrB symbiotic system, we propose here a new semi-empirical method to derive the variations in the nova recurrence time, Trec, and thus obtain a forecast estimate for the next eruption for the date: 26-Feb-2027, which is currently compatible and consistent with the observed behavior and would also justify the supposed "delay" for the next event of this nova as commented by various authors.

Links and sources

• Official / arXiv page
• PDF from original source

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