Transformation of District Heating Supply Towards Climate Neutrality in Germany

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Original abstract

To transform district heating networks towards climate neutrality, electric heat generators, renewable heat sources and unavoidable waste heat will have to cover the increasing demand for district heating in future. We focus on a three-stage methodological approach to model the transformation of district heating supply in Germany in a spatially resolved manner: modelling of the transformation of the building sector towards climate neutrality (stage 1), a spatial analysis for the distribution of district heating demand (stage 2) and a spatial analysis for renewable district heating potentials (stage 3). The spatial distribution of district heating demand in buildings is primarily focused on urban districts and metropolitan regions. District heating is becoming the dominant heating technology in buildings there. In contrast to the rising demand for district heating in the building sector, demand for district heating in industry is declining. While demand for district heating in buildings will roughly double between 2022 and 2045, it will halve in industry. As a result, the spatial distribution of district heating demand in Germany is shifting to large cities and metropolitan regions. These regions then face a particular challenge in meeting district heating demand with renewable energies and unavoidable waste heat.

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