Utility-Scale Solar Photovoltaics in Ecuador: Integrated Techno-Economic and Environmental Assessment of a 200 MWp Plant

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Chinese explanation / 中文解读

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Original abstract

Hydropower-dependent electricity systems, such as Ecuador’s, face critical supply disruptions during droughts: a vulnerability exemplified by the 2024 power outages. This study assesses the technical, economic and environmental feasibility of a 200.84 MWp grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) plant proposed for the Pacific Refinery site in Manabi, Ecuador, as a strategy to diversify the energy matrix and reduce hydrological risk. Using site-specific solar resource data (4.65 kWh/m2/day) and PVSyst simulations, the plant achieves an annual energy production of 295 GWh with a performance ratio (PR) of 85.3%. A discounted cash flow analysis over 25 years, assuming a 7% discount rate and an electricity price of 60 USD/MWh, yields a net present value (NPV) of 104.9 MUSD, an internal rate of return (IRR) of 62.2%, and a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of 14.5 USD/MWh, well below current industrial tariffs in Ecuador. Sensitivity analysis confirms project viability under ±15% variations in investment cost, energy price, and solar resource. Over its lifetime, the plant avoids 1.83 Mt of CO2 emissions, supporting national decarbonization goals. The results demonstrate that large-scale PV deployment in high-radiation, low-latitude regions can be highly profitable and contribute to energy sovereignty in hydropower-dependent systems. Furthermore, this study provides a replicable model for repurposing unused industrial land for renewable energy generation, offering actionable insights for policymakers and investors in developing economies.

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